<p>The article: <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/cXBznkfoPJAjacFoT/are-you-really-in-a-race-the-cautionary-tales-of-szilard-and">“Are you really in a race? The Cautionary Tales of Szilárd and Ellsberg”</a></p>
<h2 id="fundamental-justification">Fundamental Justification</h2>
<h3 id="what-outcomes-were-to-be-expected-before-you-started-the-project-what-were-unusually-good-and-unusually-bad-possible-outcomes-please-avoid-hindsight-bias-and-take-the-interests-of-all-sentient-beings-into-account">What outcomes were to be expected before you started the project? What were unusually good and unusually bad possible outcomes? (Please avoid hindsight bias and take the interests of all sentient beings into account.)</h3>
<p>My intention for this blog post was for it to be fairly clear and memorable, aimed at a general audience not just for an AI governance audience - especially perhaps a machine learning researcher who doesn't know much about history. The main takeaway I wanted wasn't for people to think "this is the most common/likely outcome" but rather to add a historic example to their repertoire that they can refer to. It was supposed to be a cautionary tale, a prompt to people to think not "all sprints are wrong" but rather "wait am I in an Ellsberg situation?" - and if so to have some general, sensible recommendations and questions to ask. </p>
<h3 id="what-actual-outcomes-are-you-aware-of">What actual outcomes are you aware of?</h3>
<p>Several people have left comments indicating they found it useful, such as Carl Shulman, Rohin Shah, Pablo Stafforini and others. I have presented on it to GovAI and CHAI. Christian Ruhl contacted me, and we wrote a new version of the piece for a general non-EA audience, published in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists:<br><a href="https://thebulletin.org/2022/07/why-policy-makers-should-beware-claims-of-new-arms-races">https://thebulletin.org/2022/07/why-policy-makers-should-beware-claims-of-new-arms-races</a></p>
<h3 id="who-can-make-a-legitimate-claim-to-a-fraction-of-the-impact-and-have-you-talked-to-them">Who can make a legitimate claim to a fraction of the impact, and have you talked to them?</h3>
<p>In the post I acknowledged colleagues at CSER, CFI, GovAI and Rethink Priorities – especially Di Cooke, Matthijs Maas, Helen Toner, Alex Lintz and Markus Anderljung – for feedback.</p>
<h3 id="who-are-the-current-owners-of-the-impact-and-what-fraction-do-they-each-own">Who are the current owners of the impact and what fraction do they each own?</h3>
<p>Haydn Belfield - 100%</p>
<h2 id="procedural-questions">Procedural Questions</h2>
<h3 id="what-is-your-minimum-valuation-under-which-youll-not-sell-any-shares-in-your-impact">What is your minimum valuation under which you’ll not sell any shares in your impact?</h3>
<p>I am unsure.</p>
<h3 id="what-would-you-have-done-had-there-been-no-chance-to-get-retro-funding-this-helps-us-assess-our-impact-but-has-no-effect-on-our-evaluation-of-the-certificates-impact">What would you have done had there been no chance to get retro funding? (This helps us assess our impact but has no effect on our evaluation of the certificate’s impact.)</h3>
<p>I would have written this anyway - I found out about the impact markets idea afterwards.</p>
<h3 id="what-can-we-improve-about-this-process">What can we improve about this process?</h3>
<p>Some indication about justifications for different ranges for minimum valuation.</p>


Are you really in a race? The Cautionary Tales of Szilárd and Ellsberg

<p>The article: <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/vMpuXz2zqS8iHya7i/ea-jobs-provide-scarce-non-monetary-goods">“EA jobs provide scarce non-monetary goods”</a></p>


EA jobs provide scarce non-monetary goods

<p>The article: <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZPjMemurtzeumwcdw/energy-access-in-sub-saharan-africa-open-philanthropy-cause">“Energy Access in Sub-Saharan Africa: Open Philanthropy Cause Exploration Prize”</a></p>
<h2 id="fundamental-justification">Fundamental Justification</h2>
<p>I wrote the piece because I believe that the most important thing that might be done to rectify absolute poverty, and maybe to mitigate relative poverty, would be the provision of energy as cheaply as possible. And the second most important would be the universal provision of efficient infrastructure. </p>
<p>Energy infrastructure confers benefits that improve the welfare of the worst-off at scale in ways that organizations which rely on RCTs like Give Directly, AMF, etc. cannot do, such as by improving energy-dependent sectors like health, agriculture, industry, sanitation, and access to clean water. In the post I argue that energy access in Africa is the “killer app” for sustainable economic development and is important, tractable, and neglected.</p>
<p>I examine various interventions and recommend that OpenPhil fund the Clean Air Task Force Energy Access Africa program and look for more best-in-class opportunities to promote energy access and infrastructure.</p>
<h3 id="what-positive-impact-did-you-expect-before-you-started-the-project-what-were-unusually-good-and-unusually-bad-possible-outcomes-please-avoid-hindsight-bias-and-take-the-interests-of-all-sentient-beings-into-account">What positive impact did you expect before you started the project? What were unusually good and unusually bad possible outcomes? (Please avoid hindsight bias and take the interests of all sentient beings into account.)</h3>
<p>I hoped that OpenPhil will review the piece and examine how the interventions I proposed compare to the others in their Global Health and Well-being portfolio and direct a substantial amount of GHW funds to rectifying the problem I wrote about (as they’ve done with their work in South Asian Air Quality).</p>
<p>I also hoped that by submitting very early, I would inspire/remind others to submit their Cause Exploration posts.</p>
<h3 id="what-actual-outcomes-are-you-aware-of">What actual outcomes are you aware of?</h3>
<p>Nothing tangible thus far. I believe that OpenPhil will review the piece in a few months. A few hundred people saw the post. </p>
<h3 id="who-can-make-a-legitimate-claim-to-a-fraction-of-the-impact-and-have-you-talked-to-them">Who can make a legitimate claim to a fraction of the impact, and have you talked to them?</h3>
<p>I quote Lily Ordano, the head of the Energy Access Africa program at Clean Air Task Force, many times in the post. Many of the arguments I make in the post are inspired by her articles ‘COP26: Africa is not a single static data point’ in African Arguments and ‘Discourse matters: The net-zero agenda and Africa’s priorities’ in African Policy Resource Institute.’ Aside from that and other research, I did not receive any help writing the post and I don’t believe there is anyone who is entitled to a fraction of the impact.</p>
<h3 id="who-are-the-current-owners-of-the-impact-and-what-fraction-do-they-each-own">Who are the current owners of the impact and what fraction do they each own?</h3>
<p>I have not sold any of the impact from my post. So I assume that I own 100% of it, but I’m not sure.</p>
<h2 id="procedural-questions">Procedural Questions</h2>
<h3 id="what-is-your-minimum-valuation-under-which-youll-not-sell-any-shares-in-your-impact">What is your minimum valuation under which you’ll not sell any shares in your impact?</h3>
<p>I don’t intend to make a transaction for less than $250.</p>
<h3 id="what-would-you-have-done-had-there-been-no-chance-to-get-retro-funding-this-helps-us-assess-our-impact-but-has-no-effect-on-our-evaluation-of-the-certificates-impact">What would you have done had there been no chance to get retro funding? (This helps us assess our impact but has no effect on our evaluation of the certificate’s impact.)</h3>
<ul>
<li>I wrote this post before I knew about the retro funding experiment. If I knew there was going to be one in the future, I might try to write more high-quality posts for altruistic reasons (i.e. being reminded to do so) and non-altruistic reasons (i.e being motivated to so by the promise of monetary reward).</li>
</ul>
<h3 id="what-can-we-improve-about-this-process">What can we improve about this process?</h3>
<p>More clearly explain the concept and mechanics of impact markets and retro funding.</p>


Energy Access in Sub-Saharan Africa: Open Philanthropy Cause Exploration Prize

<p>The article: <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/GYyfRupxmBHdNygGt/the-future-of-nuclear-war">“The future of nuclear war”</a></p>
<h2 id="fundamental-justification">Fundamental Justification</h2>
<p>The goal of my project is to increase awareness about the new ways how nuclear war can happen</p>
<h3 id="what-outcomes-were-to-be-expected-before-you-started-the-project-what-were-unusually-good-and-unusually-bad-possible-outcomes-please-avoid-hindsight-bias-and-take-the-interests-of-all-sentient-beings-into-account">What outcomes were to be expected before you started the project? What were unusually good and unusually bad possible outcomes? (Please avoid hindsight bias and take the interests of all sentient beings into account.)</h3>
<p>Unusually good outcome would be that the work will be cited by leading nuclear strategists and become a part a common knowledge in the field.</p>
<p>Good outcome - if it impact thinking inside EA community.</p>
<h3 id="what-actual-outcomes-are-you-aware-of">What actual outcomes are you aware of?</h3>
<p>I am aware of the number of likes and reads of the article.</p>
<h3 id="who-can-make-a-legitimate-claim-to-a-fraction-of-the-impact-and-have-you-talked-to-them">Who can make a legitimate claim to a fraction of the impact, and have you talked to them?</h3>
<h3 id="who-are-the-current-owners-of-the-impact-and-what-fraction-do-they-each-own">Who are the current owners of the impact and what fraction do they each own?</h3>
<h2 id="procedural-questions">Procedural Questions</h2>
<h3 id="what-is-your-minimum-valuation-under-which-youll-not-sell-any-shares-in-your-impact">What is your minimum valuation under which you’ll not sell any shares in your impact?</h3>
<p>Starting from 250 USD</p>
<h3 id="what-would-you-have-done-had-there-been-no-chance-to-get-retro-funding-this-helps-us-assess-our-impact-but-has-no-effect-on-our-evaluation-of-the-certificates-impact">What would you have done had there been no chance to get retro funding? (This helps us assess our impact but has no effect on our evaluation of the certificate’s impact.)</h3>
<p>Actually, I always hope on some form of retrofunding.</p>
<h3 id="what-can-we-improve-about-this-process">What can we improve about this process?</h3>


The future of nuclear war

<p>The article: <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/W5TEsCHyk5jAfr6Zv/preventing-a-us-china-war-as-a-policy-priority">“Preventing a US-China war as a policy priority”</a></p>
<p>As far as I can tell, this post was the first post on the EA Forum alerting effective altruists to the danger of war between the US and China specifically arising from the issue of Taiwanese sovereignty. Since I think there is a credible (though not overwhelming) chance that this conflict will actually happen in the coming decade or two, this post both (1) alerted EAs early to a worldwide danger, and (2) gave them time to think about how they might intervene.</p>


Preventing a US-China war as a policy priority

<p>The article: <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/J3pZ7fY6yvypvJrJE/should-large-ea-nonprofits-consider-splitting">“Should large EA nonprofits consider splitting?”</a></p>
<h2 id="fundamental-justification">Fundamental Justification</h2>
<h3 id="what-outcomes-were-to-be-expected-before-you-started-the-project-what-were-unusually-good-and-unusually-bad-possible-outcomes-please-avoid-hindsight-bias-and-take-the-interests-of-all-sentient-beings-into-account">What outcomes were to be expected before you started the project? What were unusually good and unusually bad possible outcomes? (Please avoid hindsight bias and take the interests of all sentient beings into account.)</h3>
<p>I'm trying to persuade large organisations to give up responsibility, so my expected outcome was very little change. Unusually good would be more support for EA service agencies of the sort linked in the post, to at least start building up the infrastructure to allow orgs to have more distinct responsibilities. Exceptionally good would be at least one large EA nonprofit (IMO most plausibly CEA) split off one or more of their 'products' in the next 12 months.</p>
<h3 id="what-actual-outcomes-are-you-aware-of">What actual outcomes are you aware of?</h3>
<p>None.</p>
<h3 id="who-can-make-a-legitimate-claim-to-a-fraction-of-the-impact-and-have-you-talked-to-them">Who can make a legitimate claim to a fraction of the impact, and have you talked to them?</h3>
<p>In some sense the people acknowledged in the post, though I doubt they would claim a meaningful fraction. Siao put in a decent amount of effort, maybe 10% of total (I haven't discussed this with her).</p>
<h3 id="who-are-the-current-owners-of-the-impact-and-what-fraction-do-they-each-own">Who are the current owners of the impact and what fraction do they each own?</h3>
<p>I'm not sure how to answer this, inasmuch as it differs from previous Q. </p>
<h2 id="procedural-questions">Procedural Questions</h2>
<h3 id="what-is-your-minimum-valuation-under-which-youll-not-sell-any-shares-in-your-impact">What is your minimum valuation under which you’ll not sell any shares in your impact?</h3>
<p>€40</p>
<h3 id="what-would-you-have-done-had-there-been-no-chance-to-get-retro-funding-this-helps-us-assess-our-impact-but-has-no-effect-on-our-evaluation-of-the-certificates-impact">What would you have done had there been no chance to get retro funding? (This helps us assess our impact but has no effect on our evaluation of the certificate’s impact.)</h3>
<p>Very likely written the same post, but been slightly less motivated, so ~5% chance I wouldn't have finished it,</p>
<h3 id="what-can-we-improve-about-this-process">What can we improve about this process?</h3>
<p>I've shared most of my thoughts with Dony via message, but as it's currently set up, the questions generally don't feel like they map well onto forum posts, which are usually quite speculative, written without much of a sense of expected impact, etc. This particular post had relatively concrete recommendations, but even so they still seemed too abstract to claim 'direct impact'. It's the kind of scenario where if I'm right, I would expect many people to need to develop their own versions of the ideas and public sentiment to gradually grow before any of the old guard change their behaviour.</p>


Should large EA nonprofits consider splitting?

<p>The article: <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/smWJtPMLWDfM24efG/notes-on-quantifying-the-impact-of-hiring-funding-eas">“Notes on quantifying the impact of hiring/funding EAs”</a></p>
<h2 id="fundamental-justification">Fundamental Justification</h2>
<h3 id="what-outcomes-were-to-be-expected-before-you-started-the-project-what-were-unusually-good-and-unusually-bad-possible-outcomes-please-avoid-hindsight-bias-and-take-the-interests-of-all-sentient-beings-into-account">What outcomes were to be expected before you started the project? What were unusually good and unusually bad possible outcomes? (Please avoid hindsight bias and take the interests of all sentient beings into account.)</h3>
<p>I expected that this post facilitates further conversation on the coordination of EA hiring and funding. An unusually good outcome would be if different people already interested in making products in this area use this thinking to streamline EA hiring and funding. An unusually bad outcome would be discouragement of decisionmakers, such as EA hiring professionals and funding managers.</p>
<h3 id="what-actual-outcomes-are-you-aware-of">What actual outcomes are you aware of?</h3>
<p>Short after posting, there are no reactions, which indicates neither discouragement nor use.</p>
<h3 id="who-can-make-a-legitimate-claim-to-a-fraction-of-the-impact-and-have-you-talked-to-them">Who can make a legitimate claim to a fraction of the impact, and have you talked to them?</h3>
<p>I tried to cover the concepts in <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Fahv9knHhPi6pWPEB/?commentId=YuE7u8kdTHKbborsH#ff7a7LdyHnxuovLQs">this</a> discussion. In particular, I would have probably not thought of the runway time before funding runs out and omitted the discussion on the willingness of a candidate to reapply for high-impact ventures after some time in the industry. I also took coursework relevant to the quantification and generally engaged with EA to come up with some of the ideas, especially the questions. Thus, others can attribute some impact, e. g. 20%. I have not discussed this.</p>
<h3 id="who-are-the-current-owners-of-the-impact-and-what-fraction-do-they-each-own">Who are the current owners of the impact and what fraction do they each own?</h3>
<p>Myself, 100%.</p>
<h2 id="procedural-questions">Procedural Questions</h2>
<h3 id="what-is-your-minimum-valuation-under-which-youll-not-sell-any-shares-in-your-impact">What is your minimum valuation under which you’ll not sell any shares in your impact?</h3>
<p>I am currently not selling.</p>
<h3 id="what-would-you-have-done-had-there-been-no-chance-to-get-retro-funding-this-helps-us-assess-our-impact-but-has-no-effect-on-our-evaluation-of-the-certificates-impact">What would you have done had there been no chance to get retro funding? (This helps us assess our impact but has no effect on our evaluation of the certificate’s impact.)</h3>
<p>I would likely (95%) not quantify the impact of EA hiring/funding but likely (80%) write a motivational piece without much contribution to solve the problem, which I am now discouraged to write due to some thinking on the problem solving.</p>
<h3 id="what-can-we-improve-about-this-process">What can we improve about this process?</h3>


Notes on quantifying the impact of hiring/funding EAs

<p>The article: <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Jx6ncakmergiC74kG/deference-culture-in-ea">“Deference Culture in EA”</a></p>
<h2 id="fundamental-justification">Fundamental Justification</h2>
<h3 id="what-outcomes-were-to-be-expected-before-you-started-the-project-what-were-unusually-good-and-unusually-bad-possible-outcomes-please-avoid-hindsight-bias-and-take-the-interests-of-all-sentient-beings-into-account">What outcomes were to be expected before you started the project? What were unusually good and unusually bad possible outcomes? (Please avoid hindsight bias and take the interests of all sentient beings into account.)</h3>
<p>That would motivate some more experienced EAs to consider if they should be deferring on certain topics. </p>
<h3 id="what-actual-outcomes-are-you-aware-of">What actual outcomes are you aware of?</h3>
<p>Not sure yet</p>
<h3 id="who-can-make-a-legitimate-claim-to-a-fraction-of-the-impact-and-have-you-talked-to-them">Who can make a legitimate claim to a fraction of the impact, and have you talked to them?</h3>
<p>No one </p>
<h3 id="who-are-the-current-owners-of-the-impact-and-what-fraction-do-they-each-own">Who are the current owners of the impact and what fraction do they each own?</h3>
<h2 id="procedural-questions">Procedural Questions</h2>
<h3 id="what-is-your-minimum-valuation-under-which-youll-not-sell-any-shares-in-your-impact">What is your minimum valuation under which you’ll not sell any shares in your impact?</h3>
<p>$200 USD</p>
<h3 id="what-would-you-have-done-had-there-been-no-chance-to-get-retro-funding-this-helps-us-assess-our-impact-but-has-no-effect-on-our-evaluation-of-the-certificates-impact">What would you have done had there been no chance to get retro funding? (This helps us assess our impact but has no effect on our evaluation of the certificate’s impact.)</h3>
<p>No change</p>
<h3 id="what-can-we-improve-about-this-process">What can we improve about this process?</h3>


Deference Culture in EA

<p>The article: <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/znuJ2Z48YnEjrGLvA/why-do-ea-events-attract-more-men-than-women-focus-group">“Why do EA events attract more men than women? Focus group data”</a></p>
<h2 id="fundamental-justification">Fundamental Justification</h2>
<h3 id="what-positive-impact-did-you-expect-before-you-started-the-project-what-were-unusually-good-and-unusually-bad-possible-outcomes-please-avoid-hindsight-bias-and-take-the-interests-of-all-sentient-beings-into-account">What positive impact did you expect before you started the project? What were unusually good and unusually bad possible outcomes? (Please avoid hindsight bias and take the interests of all sentient beings into account.)</h3>
<p>I hoped to help EA community organisers promote gender diversity in EA.</p>
<h3 id="what-actual-outcomes-are-you-aware-of">What actual outcomes are you aware of?</h3>
<p>One commenter wrote that he changed his community building strategy because of my post. This work likely also informed EA London's community building strategy to a small degree.</p>
<h3 id="who-can-make-a-legitimate-claim-to-a-fraction-of-the-impact-and-have-you-talked-to-them">Who can make a legitimate claim to a fraction of the impact, and have you talked to them?</h3>
<p>David Nash / EA London, who gave me attendance data. I haven't been in touch with him but will do if anyone expresses serious interest.</p>
<h3 id="who-are-the-current-owners-of-the-impact-and-what-fraction-do-they-each-own">Who are the current owners of the impact and what fraction do they each own?</h3>
<h2 id="procedural-questions">Procedural Questions</h2>
<h3 id="what-is-your-minimum-valuation-under-which-youll-not-sell-any-shares-in-your-impact">What is your minimum valuation under which you’ll not sell any shares in your impact?</h3>
<h3 id="what-would-you-have-done-had-there-been-no-chance-to-get-retro-funding-this-helps-us-assess-our-impact-but-has-no-effect-on-our-evaluation-of-the-certificates-impact">What would you have done had there been no chance to get retro funding? (This helps us assess our impact but has no effect on our evaluation of the certificate’s impact.)</h3>
<p>At the time I didn't think there would be a chance for retroactive funding.</p>


Why do EA events attract more men than women? Focus group data

<p>The article: <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/B7wohgDDdwPoQAatt/new-cause-area-training-health-workers-to-prevent-newborn">“EA forum post: Training health workers to prevent newborn deaths”</a></p>
<h2 id="fundamental-justification">Fundamental Justification</h2>
<p>I expect this post could contribute to increased interest in this cause area and potentially increased funding from EA organizations in this cause area over a ~5-10 year time horizon. </p>
<ul>
<li>A good outcome would be recognition of a new cause area that is as cost-effective as causes that get much more attention in the EA community. </li>
<li>An very good outcome would be increased traction for a concerted effort to develop learning solutions for health workers in low income countries that are 10X better than current solutions. </li>
<li>An unusually good outcome would be all of the above plus follow-up research showing that new interventions are very cost-effective and able to absorb large amounts of funding.</li>
<li>An unusually bad outcome would be over-investment in this cause area at the expense of another (hypothetical) cause area that is more cost-effective.</li>
</ul>
<h3 id="what-actual-outcomes-are-you-aware-of">What actual outcomes are you aware of?</h3>
<p>So far, the amount of views of the post, a limited amount of feedback from those who have read it, and some upvotes/comments in the forum. In addition I've been able to share the post in the context of several conversations about my work to help EA-aligned individuals see how health worker training can translate to impact.</p>
<h3 id="who-can-make-a-legitimate-claim-to-a-fraction-of-the-impact-and-have-you-talked-to-them">Who can make a legitimate claim to a fraction of the impact, and have you talked to them?</h3>
<p>All ideas, analyses, and opinions are my own, so I would say just me.</p>
<h3 id="who-are-the-current-owners-of-the-impact-and-what-fraction-do-they-each-own">Who are the current owners of the impact and what fraction do they each own?</h3>
<p>Myself - 100%</p>
<h2 id="procedural-questions">Procedural Questions</h2>
<h3 id="what-is-your-minimum-valuation-under-which-youll-not-sell-any-shares-in-your-impact">What is your minimum valuation under which you’ll not sell any shares in your impact?</h3>
<p>I think the post's total impact is worth at least $10,000. That might seem like a high number, but I'll  justify it here:</p>
<ul>
<li>Most EA forum posts, even those that deal with new causes, provide little to no quantitative data on the impact of interventions; they tend to be mostly speculative</li>
<li>This post includes a systematic analysis of current data on the cost-effectiveness of health worker training in neonatal care, rather than presenting a hand-picked selection of the most cost-effective studies</li>
<li>This post proposes new mechanisms to further increase cost-effectiveness</li>
<li>The potential impacts of the interventions described in the post are quantifiable and realizable on a short (~5-10 year) time span</li>
<li>The innovations proposed are all feasible with current technology - the only uncertainties are financial and operational</li>
</ul>
<p>This certificate of impact (this “Certificate”) represents the impact from writing and publishing the post only and does not represent the impact from any other action, activities, products or services, past, present, or future. This Certificate confers no legal rights or interests whatsoever to products, services, or intellectual property that are based upon or incorporate wholly or partially any content or idea contained or described in the post.</p>
<h3 id="what-would-you-have-done-had-there-been-no-chance-to-get-retro-funding-this-helps-us-assess-our-impact-but-has-no-effect-on-our-evaluation-of-the-certificates-impact">What would you have done had there been no chance to get retro funding? (This helps us assess our impact but has no effect on our evaluation of the certificate’s impact.)</h3>
<p>In this case, I would not have behaved differently as I did not know about the contest at the time of writing. In the future, if I were aware of retroactive funding mechanisms that were accessible to me, I might invest time in researching and applying for such funding.</p>
<h3 id="what-can-we-improve-about-this-process">What can we improve about this process?</h3>
<p>I think further explanation of how impact can be re-sold or re-used, and what rights it confers, would help. Some plain-language legal terms linked directly from this page would be very helpful. For example, if this forum post somehow generated revenue, the impact certificate would probably not not entitle its owner to revenue, but that could be described in some kind of contract. I would assume that legal ownership of impact is not the same as legal ownership of intellectual property, but that would be good to know as well.</p>


EA forum post: Training health workers to prevent newborn deaths

<p>The article: <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/wBzfLyfJFfocmdrwL/the-windfall-clause-has-a-remedies-problem">“The Windfall Clause has a Remedies Problem”</a></p>
<p>This had an impact because it shifted the dial on thinking around the Windfall Clause, one of the most developed policy mechanisms for ensure that the development of advanced AI is safe and beneficial for humanity.</p>
<p><strong>As of 13 Oct 2022, the certificate of this article is owned:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>55% by John Michael Bridge, </li>
<li>20% by Dony Christie, and </li>
<li>25% by the Long Term Future Fund.</li>
</ul>


The Windfall Clause has a Remedies Problem

<p>The article: <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/tqyKh3ref7YC9uygM/my-list-of-effective-altruism-ideas-that-seem-to-be">“My list of effective altruism ideas that seem to be underexplored”</a></p>
<h2 id="fundamental-justification">Fundamental Justification</h2>
<p>It looks like some important topics are underexplored in EA and it is good to point on them.</p>
<h3 id="what-outcomes-were-to-be-expected-before-you-started-the-project-what-were-unusually-good-and-unusually-bad-possible-outcomes-please-avoid-hindsight-bias-and-take-the-interests-of-all-sentient-beings-into-account">What outcomes were to be expected before you started the project? What were unusually good and unusually bad possible outcomes? (Please avoid hindsight bias and take the interests of all sentient beings into account.)</h3>
<p>unusually good outcome: I get funding to start a research center working on this topics and they become art of mainstream in EA and humanity</p>
<p>Good outcome: people become more aware about the topics and some of the get funding for additional research.</p>
<p>Unusually bad possible outcome: the discussion of the topics will be banned.</p>
<h3 id="what-actual-outcomes-are-you-aware-of">What actual outcomes are you aware of?</h3>
<p>Likes and comments.</p>
<h3 id="who-can-make-a-legitimate-claim-to-a-fraction-of-the-impact-and-have-you-talked-to-them">Who can make a legitimate claim to a fraction of the impact, and have you talked to them?</h3>
<p>I am a sole author of this list of causes. The articles linked in the post are not part of this certificate.  </p>
<h3 id="who-are-the-current-owners-of-the-impact-and-what-fraction-do-they-each-own">Who are the current owners of the impact and what fraction do they each own?</h3>
<h2 id="procedural-questions">Procedural Questions</h2>
<h3 id="what-is-your-minimum-valuation-under-which-youll-not-sell-any-shares-in-your-impact">What is your minimum valuation under which you’ll not sell any shares in your impact?</h3>
<p>250 USD</p>
<h3 id="what-would-you-have-done-had-there-been-no-chance-to-get-retro-funding-this-helps-us-assess-our-impact-but-has-no-effect-on-our-evaluation-of-the-certificates-impact">What would you have done had there been no chance to get retro funding? (This helps us assess our impact but has no effect on our evaluation of the certificate’s impact.)</h3>
<p>I still would do this work as it is my altruistic goal to help humanity.</p>
<h3 id="what-can-we-improve-about-this-process">What can we improve about this process?</h3>


My list of effective altruism ideas that seem to be underexplored

<p>The article: <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/qshYZfMDE5LETwbuf/the-inordinately-slow-spread-of-good-agi-conversations-in-ml">“The inordinately slow spread of good AGI conversations in ML”</a></p>
<h2 id="fundamental-justification">Fundamental Justification</h2>
<p>AGI risk is very high. Two key causes for this are "not much conversation about AGI is happening within ML", and "the conversations that do happen are relatively low-quality and non-candid". Making EA and ML more aware of these dynamics increases the odds that they'll be spontaneously solved to some degree (because individuals can consciously change their behavior now that they see the problem), and also enables EAs and ML researchers to come up with future deliberate strategies to try to solve this problem.</p>
<h3 id="what-outcomes-were-to-be-expected-before-you-started-the-project-what-were-unusually-good-and-unusually-bad-possible-outcomes-please-avoid-hindsight-bias-and-take-the-interests-of-all-sentient-beings-into-account">What outcomes were to be expected before you started the project? What were unusually good and unusually bad possible outcomes? (Please avoid hindsight bias and take the interests of all sentient beings into account.)</h3>
<p>In general, a given blog post is unlikely to have much impact. Most attempts like this will fail; occasionally, one may succeed dramatically, as illustrated by the Elon Musk example in the post (<a href="https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Rkxj7TFxhbm59AKJh/the-inordinately-slow-spread-of-good-agi-conversations-in-ml">https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Rkxj7TFxhbm59AKJh/the-inordinately-slow-spread-of-good-agi-conversations-in-ml</a>) and by the COVID-19 example in <a href="https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Js34Ez9nrDeJCTYQL/politics-is-way-too-meta">https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Js34Ez9nrDeJCTYQL/politics-is-way-too-meta</a>.</p>
<p>An example of an unusually bad outcome would be if lots of ML researchers see this post and are offended because they feel straw-manned by it.</p>
<h3 id="what-actual-outcomes-are-you-aware-of">What actual outcomes are you aware of?</h3>
<p>Not much, just a bit of engagement here, on Twitter, and on LW (<a href="https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Rkxj7TFxhbm59AKJh/the-inordinately-slow-spread-of-good-agi-conversations-in-ml">https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Rkxj7TFxhbm59AKJh/the-inordinately-slow-spread-of-good-agi-conversations-in-ml</a>).</p>
<h3 id="who-can-make-a-legitimate-claim-to-a-fraction-of-the-impact-and-have-you-talked-to-them">Who can make a legitimate claim to a fraction of the impact, and have you talked to them?</h3>
<p>The people who have shaped my background views on AI the most are Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soares.</p>
<h3 id="who-are-the-current-owners-of-the-impact-and-what-fraction-do-they-each-own">Who are the current owners of the impact and what fraction do they each own?</h3>
<p>I own all of the impact.</p>
<h2 id="procedural-questions">Procedural Questions</h2>
<h3 id="what-is-your-minimum-valuation-under-which-youll-not-sell-any-shares-in-your-impact">What is your minimum valuation under which you’ll not sell any shares in your impact?</h3>
<p>I wouldn't sell my full impact for less than $200.</p>
<h3 id="what-would-you-have-done-had-there-been-no-chance-to-get-retro-funding-this-helps-us-assess-our-impact-but-has-no-effect-on-our-evaluation-of-the-certificates-impact">What would you have done had there been no chance to get retro funding? (This helps us assess our impact but has no effect on our evaluation of the certificate’s impact.)</h3>
<p>In this case, I would have done exactly the same series of things. It wasn't on my radar that I might get funding.</p>
<h3 id="what-can-we-improve-about-this-process">What can we improve about this process?</h3>
<p>Make it shorter and simpler.</p>


The inordinately slow spread of good AGI conversations in ML

<p>The article: <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/9NcwopCEioTkkosuq/ea-common-app-development-further-encouragement">“EA Common App Development Further Encouragement”</a></p>
<h2 id="fundamental-justification">Fundamental Justification</h2>
<h3 id="what-positive-impact-did-you-expect-before-you-started-the-project-what-were-unusually-good-and-unusually-bad-possible-outcomes-please-avoid-hindsight-bias-and-take-the-interests-of-all-sentient-beings-into-account">What positive impact did you expect before you started the project? What were unusually good and unusually bad possible outcomes? (Please avoid hindsight bias and take the interests of all sentient beings into account.)</h3>
<p>I expected that this post will make the community more interested in a Common App development and thus expedite its existence. I further hoped to assure or facilitate transparency and support of all applicants in their objectives. An unusually good outcome would be someone expressing interest in developing this app in a way that engages key decisionmakers and conducts multiple test rounds. An unusually bad outcome would be key decisionmakers expressing discouragement for purposes not clearly stated, possibly implying the navigation of suboptimal dynamics.</p>
<h3 id="what-actual-outcomes-are-you-aware-of">What actual outcomes are you aware of?</h3>
<p>A few days later, Lorenzo wrote two posts “Who's hiring?” and “Who wants to be hired?,” which quote “This was inspired by the talks around an <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/search?terms=EA%20common%20application">EA common application</a>, especially <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/9NcwopCEioTkkosuq/ea-common-app-development-further-encouragement?commentId=9Fuxo9oP3FAabYLTY">this comment</a>.” These posts were pinned at the top of the EA Forum and at the time of submitting this certificate had 24 and 22 answers and 87 and 91 upvotes, respectively.</p>
<h3 id="who-can-make-a-legitimate-claim-to-a-fraction-of-the-impact-and-have-you-talked-to-them">Who can make a legitimate claim to a fraction of the impact, and have you talked to them?</h3>
<p>I messaged Vaidehi about the Common App after Cristina Schmidt Ibáñez and she wrote the <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/CkrJrwbZpw82f5A7j/coordination-within-ea-community-and-ecosystems">Coordination within EA: community &amp; ecosystems</a> post. Unfortunately, she had to cancel a call due to traveling so we did not speak. Further, I spoke with Charles He, who commented about the App in this post and he shared with me some of his earlier thinking. Then, he wrote <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/TcfszCh4iTTw7ffLH/brief-presentation-and-considerations-for-an-ea-common">Brief Presentation and Considerations for an EA Common Application</a>,” which I noticed a few days before writing this post and which greatly encouraged me for such.</p>
<p>I think that Cristina wrote a significant fraction of the initial post but could have been hesitant to post it without Vaidehi’s encouragement. Vaidehi was approachable for a message and missed the call and thus gave me time to organize my thoughts. Charles He motivated me to write this post assuming positive interest and almost ‘just a matter of writing this down.’ This was further supported by Luke Freeman’s comment on Charles’s post and his other comment elsewhere on interest in funding applications consolidation.</p>
<p>So, Charles can fairly claim 10%, Vaidehi 5%, and Cristina and Luke each 2%.</p>
<h3 id="who-are-the-current-owners-of-the-impact-and-what-fraction-do-they-each-own">Who are the current owners of the impact and what fraction do they each own?</h3>
<p>A conversation about impact ownership has not taken place.</p>
<h2 id="procedural-questions">Procedural Questions</h2>
<h3 id="what-is-your-minimum-valuation-under-which-youll-not-sell-any-shares-in-your-impact">What is your minimum valuation under which you’ll not sell any shares in your impact?</h3>
<p>I would seek to hold at least 75% (ideally about 90%) until a useful Common App appears or until the Common App developers start convincingly distancing themselves from this post or until the community starts expecting a negative impact of this piece on a positive development of the community (with or without a Common App). The 10% I can sell for $100/% (before a useful Common App occurs) which is a good deal, because a Common App increases the efficiency of EA, thus multiplies already great impact (plus facilitates the development of skills and projects that could possibly not happen otherwise).</p>
<h3 id="what-would-you-have-done-had-there-been-no-chance-to-get-retro-funding-this-helps-us-assess-our-impact-but-has-no-effect-on-our-evaluation-of-the-certificates-impact">What would you have done had there been no chance to get retro funding? (This helps us assess our impact but has no effect on our evaluation of the certificate’s impact.)</h3>
<p>I wrote this post before the retro funding post occurred, so I did not take this into consideration.</p>
<h3 id="what-can-we-improve-about-this-process">What can we improve about this process?</h3>
<ul>
<li>User-friendlier submission formatting.</li>
<li>The legal language of the confirmation is vague: Which rights? What if I sell the certificate and then buy it again for re-selling? If I am happy then do I agree? Is the permanent storage of data without the user's ability to edit or delete the record consistent with GDPR and other legislation? Even if it is possible to legally prevent users from editing a public record (e. g. since no personal data is shared), do you want to either enable edits, truncations, or public removal for purposes such as protecting others' privacy (if someone mentions something about who influenced who to write what etc) or if the legislation generally is that online comments can stay public then not stating it, or making it sound less daunting, for example 'I acknowledge that this post is posted online.'</li>
</ul>


EA Common App Development Further Encouragement

<p>The article: <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/XACy7emutxHohrfFp/some-thoughts-on-scaling">“Some thoughts on Scaling”</a></p>
<p>Commonly used concepts often take on multiple meanings of different orders that generate invisible confusion. When neglected it creates a remarkable dissonance between different parties on a team. In this case, Scaling is one of those concepts. More specifically, in the EA community – a rapidly growing movement/group of people, it seems essential we develop nuanced understanding of what we mean by scaling or growth, or we risk fracturing apart.</p>


Some thoughts on Scaling

<p>The article: <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pLBJ4KMkNP23wytcd/how-to-allocate-impact-shares-of-a-past-project">“How to allocate impact shares of a past project”</a></p>
<h2 id="fundamental-justification">Fundamental Justification</h2>
<h3 id="what-outcomes-were-to-be-expected-before-you-started-the-project-what-were-unusually-good-and-unusually-bad-possible-outcomes-please-avoid-hindsight-bias-and-take-the-interests-of-all-sentient-beings-into-account">What outcomes were to be expected before you started the project? What were unusually good and unusually bad possible outcomes? (Please avoid hindsight bias and take the interests of all sentient beings into account.)</h3>
<p>I expected that this post will advance the conversation on impact shares allocation and thus expedites the prominence of impact certificates.</p>
<h3 id="what-actual-outcomes-are-you-aware-of">What actual outcomes are you aware of?</h3>
<p>I scheduled a call with the people who were asking this question and discussed different topics related to retroactive funding. Difficulties with allocating impact shares and reasons for unpopularity of attributing impact were discussed, alongside with ways to support impact attribution.</p>
<h3 id="who-can-make-a-legitimate-claim-to-a-fraction-of-the-impact-and-have-you-talked-to-them">Who can make a legitimate claim to a fraction of the impact, and have you talked to them?</h3>
<p>Denis Dawn Drescher who asked the question. If they did not ask the question, I would have not written this post until someone would be interested. However, I was motivated by the retroactive funding opportunity, so would be less likely to write the post if the impact was attributed to someone else. On the other hand, if this thinking gets utilized, then even a small fraction of impact can have high value. Ownership of impact can motivate utilization. I am interested in maximizing impact rather than strategizing for a specific idea use. Thus, I am interested in keeping 70% of the impact while Denis Dawn can attribute 30%. I have not discussed this with them. </p>
<h3 id="who-are-the-current-owners-of-the-impact-and-what-fraction-do-they-each-own">Who are the current owners of the impact and what fraction do they each own?</h3>
<p>Myself 70%</p>
<h2 id="procedural-questions">Procedural Questions</h2>
<h3 id="what-is-your-minimum-valuation-under-which-youll-not-sell-any-shares-in-your-impact">What is your minimum valuation under which you’ll not sell any shares in your impact?</h3>
<p>About $5 for 1%</p>
<h3 id="what-would-you-have-done-had-there-been-no-chance-to-get-retro-funding-this-helps-us-assess-our-impact-but-has-no-effect-on-our-evaluation-of-the-certificates-impact">What would you have done had there been no chance to get retro funding? (This helps us assess our impact but has no effect on our evaluation of the certificate’s impact.)</h3>
<p>I could have written the post if I only saw the question, but there are many questions on the Forum and I am not reading or answering them. I could have discussed this topic verbally at an event, but other topics could come up instead.</p>
<h3 id="what-can-we-improve-about-this-process">What can we improve about this process?</h3>


How to allocate impact shares of a past project

<p>The article: <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/a8tfqSXJ7QL8neEBk/retroactive-funding-impact-quantification-and-maximization">“Retroactive funding impact quantification and maximization”</a></p>
<h2 id="fundamental-justification">Fundamental Justification</h2>
<h3 id="what-outcomes-were-to-be-expected-before-you-started-the-project-what-were-unusually-good-and-unusually-bad-possible-outcomes-please-avoid-hindsight-bias-and-take-the-interests-of-all-sentient-beings-into-account">What outcomes were to be expected before you started the project? What were unusually good and unusually bad possible outcomes? (Please avoid hindsight bias and take the interests of all sentient beings into account.)</h3>
<p>I expected to increase the popularity of retroactive funding, while motivating more people to submit certificates. An unusually good outcome would be that many people interested in maximizing impact invest in impact certificates, while they also motivate others to invest in effective impact. An unusually bad outcome would be that my writing discourages people, especially forecasters in EA, from investing.</p>
<h3 id="what-actual-outcomes-are-you-aware-of">What actual outcomes are you aware of?</h3>
<p>The post has very low upvotes and comments are only from the retroactive funding team, which indicates that it did not motivate or demotivate many people.</p>
<h3 id="who-can-make-a-legitimate-claim-to-a-fraction-of-the-impact-and-have-you-talked-to-them">Who can make a legitimate claim to a fraction of the impact, and have you talked to them?</h3>
<p>The FTX Future Fund can actually claim a share of this impact, since I thought that the question is relevant to them. If I thought that I am speaking with someone else, I would probably respond differently or refrain from responding. About 0.5% can be attributed but this has not been discussed.</p>
<h3 id="who-are-the-current-owners-of-the-impact-and-what-fraction-do-they-each-own">Who are the current owners of the impact and what fraction do they each own?</h3>
<p>Myself, 100%.</p>
<h2 id="procedural-questions">Procedural Questions</h2>
<h3 id="what-is-your-minimum-valuation-under-which-youll-not-sell-any-shares-in-your-impact">What is your minimum valuation under which you’ll not sell any shares in your impact?</h3>
<p>10% for 100$, additional 10% for $200, additional 10% for $1,000, then every 1% for $1,000 up to 49%</p>
<h3 id="what-would-you-have-done-had-there-been-no-chance-to-get-retro-funding-this-helps-us-assess-our-impact-but-has-no-effect-on-our-evaluation-of-the-certificates-impact">What would you have done had there been no chance to get retro funding? (This helps us assess our impact but has no effect on our evaluation of the certificate’s impact.)</h3>
<p>It is possible (10%) that I would have written the post if I saw the question, all else equal, but it is likely (50%) that I would not see the question.</p>
<h3 id="what-can-we-improve-about-this-process">What can we improve about this process?</h3>


Retroactive funding impact quantification and maximization

<p>Wrote a <a href="https://heye.notion.site/heye/The-Ultimate-Guide-to-EA-Conferences-974519f2bab14fc2853fbd25eb88ba8a">Notion page</a> that people still use to prepare for EA Conferences</p>


Wrote a guide to EA conferences

<p>The article: <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/tXavWgk8Xp6Avg8No/new-cooperation-mechanism-quadratic-funding-without-a">“New cooperation mechanism - quadratic funding without a matching pool”</a></p>
<h2 id="fundamental-justification">Fundamental Justification</h2>
<h3 id="what-positive-impact-did-you-expect-before-you-started-the-project-what-were-unusually-good-and-unusually-bad-possible-outcomes-please-avoid-hindsight-bias-and-take-the-interests-of-all-sentient-beings-into-account">What positive impact did you expect before you started the project? What were unusually good and unusually bad possible outcomes? (Please avoid hindsight bias and take the interests of all sentient beings into account.)</h3>
<p>I hope this method (or it's future iterations) to become useful for solving dangerous cooperation problems between powerful agents. <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/tXavWgk8Xp6Avg8No/quadratic-funding-without-a-matching-pool-1#Motivation">Here</a> is a more detailed justification.</p>
<h3 id="what-actual-outcomes-are-you-aware-of">What actual outcomes are you aware of?</h3>
<p>Two people already contacted me, who consider implementing this method in their funding systems.</p>
<h3 id="who-can-make-a-legitimate-claim-to-a-fraction-of-the-impact-and-have-you-talked-to-them">Who can make a legitimate claim to a fraction of the impact, and have you talked to them?</h3>
<h3 id="who-are-the-current-owners-of-the-impact-and-what-fraction-do-they-each-own">Who are the current owners of the impact and what fraction do they each own?</h3>
<p>100% me</p>
<h2 id="procedural-questions">Procedural Questions</h2>
<h3 id="what-is-your-minimum-valuation-under-which-youll-not-sell-any-shares-in-your-impact">What is your minimum valuation under which you’ll not sell any shares in your impact?</h3>
<h3 id="what-would-you-have-done-had-there-been-no-chance-to-get-retro-funding-this-helps-us-assess-our-impact-but-has-no-effect-on-our-evaluation-of-the-certificates-impact">What would you have done had there been no chance to get retro funding? (This helps us assess our impact but has no effect on our evaluation of the certificate’s impact.)</h3>
<p>I would have done the same, because I found out about this funding after I wrote the post.</p>
<h3 id="what-can-we-improve-about-this-process">What can we improve about this process?</h3>


New cooperation mechanism - quadratic funding without a matching pool

<p>The article: <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/LCJa4AAi7YBcyro2H/proposal-impact-list-like-the-forbes-list-except-for-impact">“Effective Altruism Forum post, rallying people to work on and fund Impact List”</a></p>
<p>The below fields will be filled out only if and when someone indicates interest in buying some fraction of it.</p>
<h2 id="fundamental-justification">Fundamental Justification</h2>
<h3 id="what-positive-impact-did-you-expect-before-you-started-the-project-what-were-unusually-good-and-unusually-bad-possible-outcomes-please-avoid-hindsight-bias-and-take-the-interests-of-all-sentient-beings-into-account">What positive impact did you expect before you started the project? What were unusually good and unusually bad possible outcomes? (Please avoid hindsight bias and take the interests of all sentient beings into account.)</h3>
<h3 id="what-actual-outcomes-are-you-aware-of">What actual outcomes are you aware of?</h3>
<h3 id="who-can-make-a-legitimate-claim-to-a-fraction-of-the-impact-and-have-you-talked-to-them">Who can make a legitimate claim to a fraction of the impact, and have you talked to them?</h3>
<h3 id="who-are-the-current-owners-of-the-impact-and-what-fraction-do-they-each-own">Who are the current owners of the impact and what fraction do they each own?</h3>
<h2 id="procedural-questions">Procedural Questions</h2>
<h3 id="what-is-your-minimum-valuation-under-which-youll-not-sell-any-shares-in-your-impact">What is your minimum valuation under which you’ll not sell any shares in your impact?</h3>
<h3 id="what-would-you-have-done-had-there-been-no-chance-to-get-retro-funding-this-helps-us-assess-our-impact-but-has-no-effect-on-our-evaluation-of-the-certificates-impact">What would you have done had there been no chance to get retro funding? (This helps us assess our impact but has no effect on our evaluation of the certificate’s impact.)</h3>
<h3 id="what-can-we-improve-about-this-process">What can we improve about this process?</h3>


Effective Altruism Forum post, rallying people to work on and fund Impact List

<p>The article: <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/kCAcrjvXDt2evMpBz/a-tale-of-2-75-orthogonality-theses">“A tale of 2.75 orthogonality theses”</a></p>
<h2 id="fundamental-justification">Fundamental Justification</h2>
<h3 id="what-outcomes-were-to-be-expected-before-you-started-the-project-what-were-unusually-good-and-unusually-bad-possible-outcomes-please-avoid-hindsight-bias-and-take-the-interests-of-all-sentient-beings-into-account">What outcomes were to be expected before you started the project? What were unusually good and unusually bad possible outcomes? (Please avoid hindsight bias and take the interests of all sentient beings into account.)</h3>
<p>Clearing up confusion within the EA community, esp interested non-experts. Creating a go-to resource for the specific conversation about AI risk in which people use the visual 'orthogonality' analogy as though it was an argument for high likelihood of AI doom. Potentially shifting the EA movement towards prioritising other areas if the aren't stronger arguments for AI risk.</p>
<h3 id="what-actual-outcomes-are-you-aware-of">What actual outcomes are you aware of?</h3>
<p>A few individuals confirmed that they had the confusion I was concerned about, and that the post cleared it up to them.</p>
<h3 id="who-can-make-a-legitimate-claim-to-a-fraction-of-the-impact-and-have-you-talked-to-them">Who can make a legitimate claim to a fraction of the impact, and have you talked to them?</h3>
<p>The people mentioned in the acknowledgement. I haven't talked to them about this submission, since I'd be very surprised if they were interested in formally claiming anything.</p>
<h3 id="who-are-the-current-owners-of-the-impact-and-what-fraction-do-they-each-own">Who are the current owners of the impact and what fraction do they each own?</h3>
<p>Me.</p>
<h2 id="procedural-questions">Procedural Questions</h2>
<h3 id="what-is-your-minimum-valuation-under-which-youll-not-sell-any-shares-in-your-impact">What is your minimum valuation under which you’ll not sell any shares in your impact?</h3>
<p>€50</p>
<h3 id="what-would-you-have-done-had-there-been-no-chance-to-get-retro-funding-this-helps-us-assess-our-impact-but-has-no-effect-on-our-evaluation-of-the-certificates-impact">What would you have done had there been no chance to get retro funding? (This helps us assess our impact but has no effect on our evaluation of the certificate’s impact.)</h3>
<p>I didn't know there was when I wrote it.</p>
<h3 id="what-can-we-improve-about-this-process">What can we improve about this process?</h3>
<p>See my other submission</p>


A tale of 2.75 orthogonality theses

<p>The article: <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/uEboia3Nv3cag7MFp/an-estimated-usd4-usd7-billion-in-matching-gift-funds-goes">“An Estimated $4 – $7 Billion in Matching Gift Funds Goes Unclaimed Per Year”</a></p>
<p>An estimated $4 – $7 billion in matching gift funds goes unclaimed per year. How do we better take advantage of this?</p>
<ul>
<li>Convince friends at work to allow you to send money to them and have them donate it to your selected fund to take advantage of their matching that they are not using.</li>
<li>Create an organization that incentivizes others not convinced by EA to take advantage of their unused matching funds. You could even pay people to do this because with the matching benefit we would still be making money.</li>
<li>Make sure GWWC members know to check with their company to see if they have matching opportunities.</li>
</ul>
<p>As far as impact realistically I don’t think we could fully take advantage of the $4 - $7 billion because companies would start to alter their matching criteria if donation requests increased that much. I do think that there is still a lot of money though especially if we tried to spread the campaign across as many companies as possible. In the best scenario I imagine a positive impact of an additional billion dollars being funded towards EA aligned organizations. The worst scenario I could imagine is this campaign negatively impacting the EA brand, it breaking the law without us knowing, or we would lose money by sending it to individuals and they would not end up donating with it. I believe we could take precautions to easily avoid these pitfalls though.</p>
<p>So far the only impact I have generated is through sharing the post, talking with a friend at work who has agreed to let me use their unused match, and reaching out to the GWWC team through email to see what they think of the idea so that I can collaborate with them.</p>
<p>I think only I can take responsibility for this idea and it’s impact. I talked with friends about the idea and had one edit my post for grammar but I don’t think anyone contributed further to the idea. The posts under my forum post were helpful but again nothing very groundbreaking.</p>
<p>My minimum valuation is $0 for selling this idea to EA.</p>
<p>If I didn’t get a reward I would of just left the idea on the forum and my one email that I sent to a GWWC community contact. If I got a prize I would think this was a better idea than I previously thought and make the effort to reach out to the director of GWWC because now I would know it would be worth his time. I would continue to try to push this idea harder to see if I could build any traction.</p>
<p>As far as feedback, I think you could make the forum post simpler. The terminology and details made it hard for me to understand at times.</p>
<p>This article is 100% owned by Tyler Smith.</p>
<p>Thank you,</p>
<p>Tyler Smith</p>


An Estimated $4 – $7 Billion in Matching Gift Funds Goes Unclaimed Per Year

<p>The article: <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/eFAXjjAZkExtXXmBd/plant-based-meat-manufacturing-capacity-shortage-in-europe">“Plant-Based Meat Manufacturing Capacity Shortage in Europe 2020 - 2030”</a></p>
<h2 id="fundamental-justification">Fundamental Justification</h2>
<h3 id="what-outcomes-were-to-be-expected-before-you-started-the-project-what-were-unusually-good-and-unusually-bad-possible-outcomes-please-avoid-hindsight-bias-and-take-the-interests-of-all-sentient-beings-into-account">What outcomes were to be expected before you started the project? What were unusually good and unusually bad possible outcomes? (Please avoid hindsight bias and take the interests of all sentient beings into account.)</h3>
<p>It was expected that the analysis would contribute to building awareness about potential shortage of structured plant protein in Europe and would therefore increase the funding and number of new factories built. Unusually good possible outcome: because of the post enough new factories would be built by 2030 to satisfy all of the projected demand. Unusually bad possible outcome: analysis overestimates the size of potential demand (or underestimates current capacity) and new factories that will be built because of the analysis will not have enough demand and will go out of business.</p>
<h3 id="what-actual-outcomes-are-you-aware-of">What actual outcomes are you aware of?</h3>
<p>None to this date</p>
<h3 id="who-can-make-a-legitimate-claim-to-a-fraction-of-the-impact-and-have-you-talked-to-them">Who can make a legitimate claim to a fraction of the impact, and have you talked to them?</h3>
<p>Not at this point</p>
<h3 id="who-are-the-current-owners-of-the-impact-and-what-fraction-do-they-each-own">Who are the current owners of the impact and what fraction do they each own?</h3>
<p>Rainer Kravets (50%) and Peter Bolinder (50%)</p>
<h2 id="procedural-questions">Procedural Questions</h2>
<h3 id="what-is-your-minimum-valuation-under-which-youll-not-sell-any-shares-in-your-impact">What is your minimum valuation under which you’ll not sell any shares in your impact?</h3>
<p>200 USD</p>
<h3 id="what-would-you-have-done-had-there-been-no-chance-to-get-retro-funding-this-helps-us-assess-our-impact-but-has-no-effect-on-our-evaluation-of-the-certificates-impact">What would you have done had there been no chance to get retro funding? (This helps us assess our impact but has no effect on our evaluation of the certificate’s impact.)</h3>
<p>Would still have done this analysis</p>
<h3 id="what-can-we-improve-about-this-process">What can we improve about this process?</h3>
<p>As of 2022-06-30, the certificate of this article is owned by Rainer Kravets (50%), and Peter Bolinder (50%).</p>


Plant-Based Meat Manufacturing Capacity Shortage in Europe 2020 - 2030

<p><a href="https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gyMXuhcYyMRpwEjGq/a-few-terrifying-facts-about-the-russo-ukrainian-war">I wrote a post highlighting the escalation happening between Russia and Ukraine.</a></p>
<p>Benefits: Alerted people on LessWrong to the current Ukraine situation in a way that hopefully summarized the parts that make it a particularly concerning case of apparent brinksmanship. </p>
<p>Costs: Maybe made people spend hours worrying about this over nothing.</p>
<p>I am going to track the impact allocation of this certificate manually until we've got the tracking of shares set up.</p>
<p>Dony Christie -&gt; 100% </p>
<p>(I need to confirm that this is in fact true I am 100% the owner of the post as a norm that we want to promote vs 'oh hey turns out LessWrong owns a bit for hosting the post' or 'Vladimir Putin owns a bit for having made the whole thing happen' or 'each news article I read owns a bit' or 'literal God has had a hand in this certificate')</p>
